The cost of living. Public schools. Health care. For the Harris County voters KPRC 2 spoke with, there’s no single reason to show up at the polls this election.
But they’re casting ballots early at a faster pace than they did during the last midterm.
More than 700,000 Harris County voters had voted early in person or returned a mail ballot through Monday, according to the Harris County Clerk’s Office.
Steven David has been following the numbers. His analysis of public voting records shows the county’s early vote is ahead of where it was at the same point in the 2022 midterm and closer to the pace of the 2024 presidential election.
“Right now in Harris County, we are 1.6 times more than in 2022, the last off-cycle election, and we’re at about 86% of a presidential election,” David said. “So as a person who analyzes this, this is more like a presidential year than it is a nonpresidential year.”
David is a former Houston city executive who ran for Congress as a Democrat in 2018. He created an online dashboard using public voting records to compare turnout and voting history.
At an early voting location, Edward Hernandez said affordability was on his mind. Hernandez, who identified himself as a Democratic voter, said he wants elected officials to address the cost of living.
“Definitely cost of living. Everything’s gone up and we need people that are going to make changes,” Hernandez said.
Laura Payne said she usually leans Republican but has long considered herself independent when choosing candidates. Public schools were among her major concerns, she said.
“I have no problem voting Democrat and Republican, but this year it definitely became not a party. It became what they stood for,” Payne said.
Simon Tejada said the governor’s race was the main reason he came to the polls. He also cited health care and affordability.
“Finances do not go as far as they used to,” Tejada said.
David’s dashboard uses public records showing whether someone voted, when they voted and, where available, their past voting history.
The records can show whether someone participated in a Democratic or Republican primary. They cannot show which candidate that person selected on their general-election ballot.
“In the state of Texas, you don’t register as a Democrat or register as a Republican. You just participate in the primary,” David said.
He said his analysis shows more people who voted in the Democratic primary have cast early ballots than people who voted in the Republican primary. But he said the two groups are turning out at roughly the same rate.
The difference, he said, is that more Harris County voters participated in the Democratic primary to begin with.
“In the Democratic primary in Harris County, there were 344,000 Democrats that went out and voted, and there were 200,000 Republicans that went out and voted,” David said. “Now they’re all turning out at the exact same rate.”
He said the picture could change as early voting continues and Election Day approaches.
“Republicans tend to be later voters. They like their Election Day voting,” David said. “But if you remember, in the presidential year, 75% of all ballots cast were early voting.”
David also said many people voting early do not have a primary voting history in the records he analyzed.
David said one trend that caught his attention was participation among people with Democratic primary voting history in suburban areas, including ZIP codes around Katy, Cypress and Tomball.
“I would say that it is surprising to me about the number of Democrats that are showing up in the suburban areas,” he said. “So when I was looking at turnout and we’re seeing like twice the number of Democrats showing up where I’m looking at codes like Katy, Cypress, Tomball, these are places where Democrats don’t traditionally have a stronghold.”
He pointed to his own Tomball-area ZIP code, 77377, as an example. David said a larger share of early voters there had Democratic primary history than at the same point in previous elections.
David emphasized that the early voting records don’t show which candidates those voters chose this time.
“The local turnout doesn’t really indicate anything because we don’t see who they’re voting for,” he said.
Harris County has leaned Democratic in recent elections, but the outcome in a statewide race depends on the total votes candidates receive across Texas.
That means the number of votes each candidate receives in Harris County can affect the statewide margin, regardless of which candidate finishes first in the county. The same is true in other counties.
David said Harris County will be important in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
“It’s how big of a vote difference there is that will make up for the other counties in the state of Texas that are going to very reliably go for Ken Paxton,” David said.
He also said he’s watching for voters who split their choices between candidates from different parties.
“The most unique and impactful voter in Texas right now are going to be the vote splitters,” David said. “This is going to be the people who vote for Greg Abbott as governor and Talarico for Senate.”
David cautioned against using early turnout to assume an outcome.
“Looking at it at this point in time right now and saying it’s going to be D plus 15 or whatever people are saying is a little bit misleading,” he said. “It’s not in the bag. Everybody still has to get out and vote.”
David said older voters make up a substantial share of the early voting records he has analyzed so far. He also said the picture can change as more people vote.
“Historically, what we see is that older people tend to vote early. Younger people tend to vote later in early vote or on Election Day,” he said. “So there’s still a lot to go.”
He said early voting accounted for 67% of total turnout in 2022 and 75% in 2024.
“If young people really want to have an impact and a voice, they need to start turning out because this is looking like to be a presidential year,” David said.
The governor’s race and U.S. Senate race are among the contests drawing attention, but voters will also make choices involving Congress, the Texas Legislature, county offices and judges.
Depending on where they live, some voters will also see local propositions or school-related measures.
To see the contests and candidates on your own ballot, go to HarrisVotes.com and select “What’s on My Ballot?” Your ballot depends on where you live.
Early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
